Paper - Forecasting and Simulation Model

Header Paper Forecasting Simulation

Hict worked with imec and with the support of VLAIO to create a model for long-term forecasting and simulation of bed capacity and care demand. This model supports strategic planning in hospitals.

From concept to application

What was once a concept in Excel evolved to an actual forecasting model and application called CaSPr. CaSPr did not start out as Capacity and Staffing Prediction. Before it was a model that went by the name of ProMoBed (as referenced in the paper).

We wanted to develop this model to have a scientific base for supporting our clients who were looking to build a new hospital. The results of the forecasting and simulation allow us to support the client in their strategic planning and the architect in estimating the square meters.

Once we had a model, we further invested in creating an application on top of it and as such expand its capabilities and use. The application allows us to perform analyses and come to insights for assisting in the drafting of regional care strategic plans, policy plans, exploring new constructions or mergers of hospitals or departments.


Together with imec / UGent, we published a paper on the model outlining the literature overview, the methods and different concepts used within the model: "A long-term forecasting and simulation model for strategic planning of hospital bed capacity."

Follow the links below to download the full paper.

Download from UGent Download from ScienceDirect

To make the model accessible we developed together with Metanous a web application allowing users to create simulations via a user interface. This application is known today as CaSPr, Capacity and Staffing Prediction.

The model and application can be used for more than just estimating the size of your hospital based on future bed capacity and care demand. We can implement different scenarios to see how a hospital or a department might have to organise themselves and adapt their long-term strategy.

Get to know CaSPr by visiting our dedicated page, or request a demo to get a live view of our application.

Visit our CaSPr page

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